Belarus and Russia's potential escalation role draw Western concern

What we know

• French President Macron issued a warning to Belarus in a rare phone call with President Lukashenko around May 24, 2026.
• The Belarusian opposition leader visited Ukraine around May 25, as Kyiv warned of potential escalation involving Belarus.
• Western leaders were reported to be monitoring Belarus for signs it might offer Russia direct military assistance.
• Putin signed a law authorizing the use of military force to 'protect Russian citizens' abroad around the same period, raising further concern.